Tin Market Volatility: Price Resilience Amid Tight Balance in Mine Supply and Intertwined Macro Bullish and Bearish Factors [SMM Tin Midday Review]

At noon on August 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,180 yuan/mt, rising slightly by 1,030 yuan from the previous night session, a gain of 0.39%. During the trading session, prices fluctuated rangebound around the 266,000 yuan/mt level, with both long and short positions cautiously competing amid the conflicting expectations of production resumptions in Myanmar and weak demand. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was temporarily quoted near $33,390/mt, closing down 0.27% overnight to $33,125/mt, reflecting a rise in wait-and-see sentiment in overseas markets.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have intensified (with a 94% probability for September), weighing on the US dollar index. However, a 1.52% single-day drop in international oil prices dragged down overall commodity sentiment. The aftermath of Trump's tariff policies continues: The US has imposed new tariffs (ranging from 25%-39%) on India, Switzerland, and others, exacerbating concerns over cost transmission in the global trade chain. The EU has suspended retaliatory measures against the US for six months, providing short-term relief but leaving uncertainties unresolved. The market is repeatedly weighing between "interest rate cuts as a floor" and "demand realities."

​​The most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to move sideways within the 255,000-283,000 yuan/mt range. If LME inventory further declines or the US dollar index breaks below key levels, prices may test the 269,000 yuan resistance level. Conversely, if demand falls short of expectations, prices may retreat to the 263,000 yuan support level.